Game Theory: Did Dream FAKE His Speedrun? A Final Analysis.

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Special thanks to Skillshare for sponsoring this episode!
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There has been a controversy brewing on the Minecraft side of ALfirst centered around well known Minecraft creator Dream. He's been accused of faking his speedrun and it has caused a lot of stir. I'm not here to point fingers or accuse anyone. What I'm doing today, Theorists, is going over the facts of this situation and why it is a lot more complicated than people are making it out to be.
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#Dream #DreamSpeedrun #Speedrun #DreamSMP #Minecraft #MinecraftTheory #MinecraftLore #MinecraftUpdate #MatPat #Theory #GameTheory
FNAF, The FINAL Timeline ►►
FNAF, The Monster We MISSED! ►►
FNAF This Theory Changes Everything ►
FNAF, You Were Meant To Lose ►
FNAF 6, No More Secrets ►
Writers: Matthew Patrick and Justin Kuiper
Editors: Dan "Cybert" Seibert, Alex "Sedge" Sedgwick, Forrest Lee, Tyler Mascola, and Koen Verhagen
Assistant Editor: AlyssaBeCrazy
Sound Editor: Yosi Berman


  1. John Armstrong
    John Armstrong
    Minutë më parë

    Fun Fact - regression towards the mean is one of the most important elements in determining sample size for clinical testing. This random statistics phenomenon is what determined if covid vaccines were safe enough.

  2. Vonvon Gonzales
    Vonvon Gonzales
    39 minuta më parë

    Make a funny video on animal crossing

  3. Garou
    Orë më parë

    Thank you all in the comments section for stating what I already figured and saving me 23 minutes and 29 seconds of my life.

  4. Azguard Mike 2013
    Azguard Mike 2013
    3 orë më parë

    With the Blazes, what NOONE is talking about is on one of those runs, Dream found a LOOTING 2 sword at a ruined portal. For the n00bs out there, LOOTING 2 increases the odds of a mob dropping loot when killed. This has not been addressed by anyone. The report also compares FIVE of Luminas speedruns with SIX of Dreams. So there already is a inconsistency. Thats like me saying: "Ok matpat, flip this coin 50 times for five days and record how many heads and tails you get." Then I go to Stephanie and give her a coin and say "Ok Steph, flip this coin 50 times for Six days and record how many heads and tails you get." Then on the Monday next week, i'll see Steph had more heads that Mat. Did she use a two headed coin? Did she cheat? No because she had higher odds so had a higher Heads. Same with Dream on his trades. He did more trades and thus got more drops. Come on matpat do your job instead of repeating what everyone has already been saying.

  5. Theater Bratt
    Theater Bratt
    3 orë më parë

    Wasn't the point of 1.16 to change the game dramatically to make it feel different

  6. Bush MG
    Bush MG
    4 orë më parë

    Ah MatPat, you began an eccentric entertainer at home amongst the Wild West of ALfirst, but the years of advertiser scrutiny have pushed you down to little more than a shill who profits off the young. Perhaps your time on this platform is due to expire, and you may not be missed.

  7. C M
    C M
    5 orë më parë


  8. lucktr8
    6 orë më parë

    8:35 youtube is broken my button is white :p

  9. sebastian bell
    sebastian bell
    7 orë më parë

    wtf that wasent even a theory...... is that just a slogan now adays?

  10. Syed Azfar Ali Jalali ACSG8
    Syed Azfar Ali Jalali ACSG8
    10 orë më parë

    Just saying, I am not a dream stan, but I AM good at math. And they released a statement that the chance of getting dream's runs was 10 billion to 1? 100 billion to 1? 1000 billion to 1? Point is, there is a chance of dreams runs to be true. That he didn't need to manipulate rng and that his luck was good. If the statement and said impossible then, well, I am with you, dream cheated. But the statement gave numbers that were near impossible, improbable, because they still had a chance to be true. I think dream hit the luck jackpot and is telling the truth.

  11. Benjamin Jakubec
    Benjamin Jakubec
    11 orë më parë

    Hey Matt , Id like to ask , when enderman are people or ancient builders , how did they got to End when ender pearls drop from Enderman? ._.

  12. シJusDibzュ ス デ ィ ブ ズ
    シJusDibzュ ス デ ィ ブ ズ
    12 orë më parë

    Me : explains simple math My family;

  13. Ella Cavanagh
    Ella Cavanagh
    13 orë më parë

    Well what are the chances of finding a stronghold RANDOMLY ( finding it by chance or without eye of ender ) im guessing very slim yet it happened to me tis luck

  14. Flowey The flower
    Flowey The flower
    17 orë më parë

    Me: about to beat the speed run by 00000000000.1 seconds

  15. ariel hernandez
    ariel hernandez
    18 orë më parë

    who was the first person to ever make a netherite beacon

  16. Nguyen Bui Ha Linh
    Nguyen Bui Ha Linh
    19 orë më parë

    deam is mrbeast

    1. Ares Lothbrok
      Ares Lothbrok
      3 orë më parë

      Bruh no

  17. Dean Fawcett
    Dean Fawcett
    22 orë më parë

    He does not

  18. SCP Productions
    SCP Productions
    23 orë më parë

    1.16 : so different some people don't accept it 1.17 : *uhhhhh*

  19. glitch gamer
    glitch gamer
    Ditë më parë

    When does the video start? Over 5min mark haven't started the video yet where is minecraft speedrun. Haven't dissapointed more in any of ur video almost never dissapointed but this one oh yeah wasted my time.

  20. ken dow
    ken dow
    Ditë më parë

    the joker has aids

  21. ken dow
    ken dow
    Ditë më parë

    gooba gabba

  22. Holly Carr
    Holly Carr
    Ditë më parë

    Mr beast was In the background at the store

  23. Michael Langston
    Michael Langston
    Ditë më parë

    0:14 why does mr beast have so much stuff???

  24. dandad
    Ditë më parë

    spoiler alert: dream cheated

  25. Martha Cima
    Martha Cima
    Ditë më parë


  26. Kartoony_KobiYT
    Ditë më parë


  27. Martha Cima
    Martha Cima
    Ditë më parë

    i dont get it

  28. Victoria And Joseph
    Victoria And Joseph
    Ditë më parë

    I Had More Cringe

  29. Brandon Gee
    Brandon Gee
    Ditë më parë

    It was fake

  30. madhvi goyal
    madhvi goyal
    Ditë më parë

    "Did dream cheat his speedrun?" That only dream fan : *clicks out of video*

  31. The Aisha Biscuit
    The Aisha Biscuit
    Ditë më parë

    Before Reveal: 10 = 7 heads Answer Reveal: IM CORECT!!! :D

  32. Tiger Arora
    Tiger Arora
    Ditë më parë

    We: did dream cheat? MatPat: Well yes, but actually no

  33. Tashi Yuen
    Tashi Yuen
    Ditë më parë


  34. Player 1
    Player 1
    Ditë më parë

    I saw someone beat minecraft in 4:24 minutes

  35. Aafiya arissa
    Aafiya arissa
    Ditë më parë

    Me: being that one 8 year old kid bad at math but likes game theory lol

  36. GINGY_zamination Yt
    GINGY_zamination Yt
    Ditë më parë

    Flip 10 and get 7+heads

  37. Kobe is Children
    Kobe is Children
    Ditë më parë

    although there are 10-37 major factors involved, it seems that "the thing that makes minecraft 1.16 speedruns 5 minutes faster than previous versions is the piglin trading, it's basically a slot machine". so if one were to cheat at this game, do you think they would change those rates? and change the rates of "one of the biggest bottlenecks in any minecraft speedrun"?

    1. Kobe is Children
      Kobe is Children
      Ditë më parë

      and don't you think that Kobe is children? cause he is

  38. Kenrick John Marquez
    Kenrick John Marquez
    Ditë më parë

    NEW THEORY FOR MINECRAFT What is bedrock made of

  39. SK_WantsToGameEnd
    Ditë më parë

    YT theory: Matpat inetially had an awnser, but the awnser was that Dream did cheat. However, since Dream has already collabed on Game Theory, Matpat didn't want to ruin his future chances with Dream's clout (attacking someone on the internet who has more clout then you is a death sentance). But since he didn't want to throw away hours of research, he made a video that never gave a diffinitive awnser.

  40. Pranav J pillai
    Pranav J pillai
    Ditë më parë

    But with the stupid barter,I barted with more than 280 gold,u know how much I got? 5 pearls,5 PEARLS, if u are thinking how I got that much, I had a Mesa near my village

  41. Pranav J pillai
    Pranav J pillai
    Ditë më parë

    I have got more than that much blaze rods so does that mean I cheated? No it's just luck And looting 😂

    1. Benedict Masengi
      Benedict Masengi
      Ditë më parë

      He doesn't get the drops once and thats it after hours of clips his luck is much higher than anyone

  42. Mateus Fernandes
    Mateus Fernandes
    Ditë më parë

    Stand-up maths did a video that actually answers the question... 🙏🏽

  43. The man with Panda eyes
    The man with Panda eyes
    Ditë më parë

    This is worst then mrbossftw’s video’s

  44. Ruby _Gem
    Ruby _Gem
    Ditë më parë

    When he was talking about flipping coins I did not get any of that lol

  45. susan alvarenga
    susan alvarenga
    Ditë më parë

    8:32 my aswer is (a)

  46. Marco Rivera
    Marco Rivera
    Ditë më parë

    idk that questiopn

  47. KOJONES123 4
    KOJONES123 4
    Ditë më parë

    Why tf do people even care he’s not even first he’s sixth , people only care because it’s dream

    1. Benedict Masengi
      Benedict Masengi
      Ditë më parë

      It's because he faked a speedrun

    2. morbideddie
      Ditë më parë

      Exactly, any other runner and their run would have just been quietly removed and they would have been suspended from posting. Because it’s dream we have to keep talking about it because he won’t let it go and his stans don’t understand maths.

  48. Ian Owens
    Ian Owens
    Ditë më parë

    im gonna tell my math teacher to find out if he was cheating

  49. Ian Owens
    Ian Owens
    Ditë më parë

    "when they bust out latex, you know its serious" thats what she said im sorry i had to

  50. SilencedLamb_ _
    SilencedLamb_ _
    Ditë më parë

    I want to matt to be my mentor like om not joking

  51. Black and yellow
    Black and yellow
    2 ditë më parë

    10 and getting heads 7 times

  52. DIO Brando
    DIO Brando
    2 ditë më parë

    Dream Speedrunner *exists* The Game Theorists: Dream the Game *Exists*

  53. Ruben Quack
    Ruben Quack
    2 ditë më parë

    Here's an actual answer to this question by Matt Parker from StandUp Maths: Bonus: it doesn't have the ridiculous bragging about understanding a bunch of math that he clearly doesn't understand at all.

  54. Chimbi Choombi
    Chimbi Choombi
    2 ditë më parë

    How can some people in this comment section be so ignorant as still think that dream definitively cheated. Matpat’s argument is that the chance of Dream’s drop rates is subjective, which is clearly evident by the different methodologies of the “Particle Physicist” and the mod team. The definitive answer to whether he cheated or not is obtainable only in a perfect world. The best solution would be to support the number of factors (why is it 10 vs 37?), and then to select data from every single recorded instance of Dream’s speed running attempts. Both sides did none of this, and both were biased, and used “true” but misleading statistics. Statistics may be right on a graph, but when applied to a topic, are misleading. For example, “4/5 dentists recommend Colgate”. It may be true, but perhaps those same 5 dentists all recommended Sensodyne. The original statement isn’t false, but it is misleading you to buy the less recommended brand, when obviously Sensodyne was recommended more. Conclusion: Statistics are often biased and used to lie to people, and Pat’s video is saying the ways you can come to a conclusion (and also how both sides did) is not truly representing the entire picture.

  55. animesh rawat
    animesh rawat
    2 ditë më parë

    matpat is like you when you're asked "would you save your mom or dad?"

  56. Gaetan Siffert
    Gaetan Siffert
    2 ditë më parë

    2:11 oh god no not latex

  57. Alexander Wiseman
    Alexander Wiseman
    2 ditë më parë

    This was decidedly a YES to anyone who really understood the data, but a "...maybe no??" to Dream stans. I understand, PatPat, but if you ain't finna answer the question yourself, you shouldn't finna ask the question in your title. Title it something like "An in depth analysis on the Dream situation" or something.

  58. Viktor Milojevic
    Viktor Milojevic
    2 ditë më parë

    If he is better than you in minecraft it doesn't mean you should make fake videos about him

  59. Arianna Oros
    Arianna Oros
    2 ditë më parë

    Little did future Matpat know was that the argument continued more on the down low

  60. Mel Marmoria
    Mel Marmoria
    2 ditë më parë

    this video is so infuriating to watch for so many reasons - too many unnecessary tangents - no real conclusion/answer to the actual title question, hence just pure clickbait - flexing that you share some business with LE DREAM, i guess he is somebody to gloat about - this was basically the longest loudest loading screen for an (skillshare) ad - claiming this video is supposed to be educating about the maths, in the end only explaining the theory of it in a very weird and hard to understand way - the finishing verdict. "minecraft 1.16+ shouldnt be getting speedruns anymore cause too high dependence on luck :c"

  61. SleekJupiter
    2 ditë më parë

    This is last year's drama mat

  62. noname
    2 ditë më parë

    60 is harder than 7 :)

  63. Honshu :]
    Honshu :]
    2 ditë më parë

    I think we all forget what kind of channel Matpat has, he is a Theorist. Yes, he is a good theorist but everybody isn’t always right. Maybe he did cheat, maybe he did not. Your all in the comments talking about how he dodged the question but really he’s literally just doing what he normally does. Yet you don’t say this when he makes different themes such as FNAF and other DDLC? Yet nobody from these games have stood up to things such as this? Why say all of this now because it’s a ALfirstr and not a game of which you can’t say to somebody’s face? Yes, it is basically click bait but what isn’t? My god people it’s 2021, click bait is everywhere right under your noses! Not even just on youtube and even I think you know that. Go ahead, comment down how wrong I am but you can’t deny that this is suspicious and seems acted. Yeah, he might be right but he isn’t a mind reader, the only person who knows whether they cheated or not is Dream. I wonder why it’s always the ALfirstr’s fault and not the game/game developers? 1.16 just came out when this event took place so their is bound to be bugs. But that still doesn’t mean Dream is off the hook and neither is MatPat. But remember, at the end of the day it’s just a theory everybody. :) (Please debate about this in the comments, I wanna see all of opinions on this :D)

  64. Oda Siam
    Oda Siam
    2 ditë më parë

    This channel helped me learn more than my class lol

  65. Zack Pumpkinhead
    Zack Pumpkinhead
    2 ditë më parë

    8:36 THEY"RE BOTH THE SAME! HA! Sorry so many comments. I'll do less next time

  66. Zack Pumpkinhead
    Zack Pumpkinhead
    2 ditë më parë

    1:46 Warzone... huh? Have you heard of... 2b2t?

  67. Matthew Hogan
    Matthew Hogan
    2 ditë më parë


  68. Livie Noelle
    Livie Noelle
    3 ditë më parë

    conclusion: the speedrunning team is jealous

    1. morbideddie
      Ditë më parë

      Yes Stanley, they were jealous of his 14th place run.

    2. Hayden Y
      Hayden Y
      2 ditë më parë


  69. kat h
    kat h
    3 ditë më parë

    Pls he would be such a cool and good teacher

    1. Hayden Y
      Hayden Y
      2 ditë më parë


  70. Glad Bros Entertainment
    Glad Bros Entertainment
    3 ditë më parë

    7 times

  71. Dr. Rocker
    Dr. Rocker
    3 ditë më parë

    Matpat is such a wuss the only reason he won’t say he is cheating is because he is scared to lose his kid subscribers but don’t you see Matpat your subscribers have now grown up dot. Be afraid to say he cheated

  72. Rainbow Pummmkins
    Rainbow Pummmkins
    3 ditë më parë

    Mat pls tell me pls!

  73. James7
    3 ditë më parë

    I can smell the dream stan dislike this video.

  74. RaisinTree
    3 ditë më parë

    hope you all have a nice week, wanted to let you know that Jesus loves you and died for you. you might think of this as annoying and you’ve seen it a lot, but it’s more than that. those who share this are happy with Christ and believe in eternal life and happiness. they want you to be a part of that too, and so do i. you can have your own opinion and i respect it and you can ignore this and that’s fine. stay safe. i believe in you. in whatever you want to do. God has not left you, and never will. again, Jesus Christ loves you so much. He is willing to heal you and anyone else no matter what they’ve done. He has died for us and proved that He is the Christ, Savior, and Protector. God heals us, even though we are wicked. think about that. may we not be ashamed to share His word, for He was not ashamed of us.

    1. Brandon Morehouse
      Brandon Morehouse
      3 ditë më parë

      I would like to say the youtube comments are not the beat place for this kind of a statement

  75. Dragon Fire
    Dragon Fire
    3 ditë më parë

    Ppl are knocking matpat for not really answering, but he did give a more complex view of both arguments, and I don’t think that’s nothing.

  76. a channel
    a channel
    3 ditë më parë

    my view I don't think he cheated he clearly got a higher drop rate then normal but odds are just odds. The drop rate for endermen dropping ender pearls is around 50% of course that doesn't mean you're going to consistently drop 5 ender pearls for every 10 endermen its possible to kill 1000 endermen and them drop no enderpearl just its very very unlikely I dont know the probability percentage i imagine its extremely low but still not impossible.

  77. bestofyosuke
    3 ditë më parë

    When he started talking about the luck of the item drops, I just thought "so no one here has played a gacha game then" because the luck I've seen some people have by accident is ridiculous, versus some people who whale on them and don't get nearly as lucky (hence the whaling)

  78. JamFoxxy
    3 ditë më parë

    Mans pulled a Ranboo and didn't choose sides

  79. FreesmartBros2007
    3 ditë më parë

    2:21 relatable ;-;

  80. AncientAmber YT
    AncientAmber YT
    3 ditë më parë

    Ah yes, clickbait

    1. Brandon Morehouse
      Brandon Morehouse
      3 ditë më parë

      Well yes but actually no

  81. K'Sean Richardson
    K'Sean Richardson
    3 ditë më parë

    I thought condoms when u said latex, but i noticed the quadratic formula short after 😂. What am i?

  82. DONT wamt
    DONT wamt
    3 ditë më parë

    So everyone's hating matpat here because he doesnt know something? Makes sense

  83. Out by the Water in Cape May
    Out by the Water in Cape May
    3 ditë më parë

    So... He did? Because any Dream stans that disagree better bend over.

  84. •peachs bunzs ôwø•
    •peachs bunzs ôwø•
    3 ditë më parë

    help me with me math pls

  85. ENO
    3 ditë më parë

    İmagine dream commenting

  86. Ariel Flores
    Ariel Flores
    3 ditë më parë

    I think 100 times

  87. Zain Huda
    Zain Huda
    3 ditë më parë

    The real problem is that profesional mathmeticians and scientists can spend hours of time just to debunk a minecraft speedrun... Do they really not have anything better to do with their life??

  88. Dream the animator
    Dream the animator
    3 ditë më parë


  89. chrichu
    3 ditë më parë

    Some people took this video the wrong way bc there are quite a lot of dislikes

    3 ditë më parë

    Its funny bc they're talking about high luck but there was a game my dad played and literally got a 0.01% chance weapon 5 time in a row (DFFOO)

  91. Jamie Brophy
    Jamie Brophy
    3 ditë më parë


  92. raystrashcan
    3 ditë më parë

    Sir, I seem to be missing an answer in this video

  93. Juliet Torres
    Juliet Torres
    4 ditë më parë

    Coin ten times

  94. lars thememelord
    lars thememelord
    4 ditë më parë

    for anyone who’s angry about lack of an answer it says FINAL ANALYISIS NOT FINAL ANSWER

  95. Vanja Nenadović
    Vanja Nenadović
    4 ditë më parë

    Yeah, you can say that it's 69.2 percent, but if people didn't watch other people's videos, that is 8.8 x 10 to the power of MINUS 12. That is(near) one in a 8800000000000 chance of getting JUST the blaze rods. Including ender pearls, which are (again near) one in 5600000000000 chance, then yeah. And both of them together, are (near) 1 in 2000000000000000000000 chance of getting them.

  96. Galand Commandment Of Truth
    Galand Commandment Of Truth
    4 ditë më parë


  97. MegaMathew75
    4 ditë më parë


  98. ailey
    4 ditë më parë

    I wish matpat was my math teacher

  99. Djd250
    4 ditë më parë

    is p hacking hacking wile ur peeing?

  100. W Aliff Naufal W M Syuhaidi
    W Aliff Naufal W M Syuhaidi
    4 ditë më parë

    Ohh well did you know in one of dreams speedrun when he placed the boats in mid air actually there were barriers and there were barriers in the other speedrun when he placed boats in the lava there were barriers because how can he place things in mid air I tried it to and do all his hacks and a failure so he’s fake speedrunning

    1. Brandon Morehouse
      Brandon Morehouse
      3 ditë më parë

      That makes no sense, and i agree with your final statement. Your explanation just doesn’t work